The Smartphone Wars: Who’s Winning So Far?

I remember, not so long ago, when everybody was very impressed to receive a message with the sig “Sent from my Blackberry”. Wow, you had a Blackberry! You were a Crackberry, like all those Wall Street traders! Now, you can get a free Blackberry when you sign up for a two year contract, and it’s no longer a big deal; everybody has a smartphone.  Well, not everyone, but 40% of mobile phone users in the United States have iPhones, Adroids or Blackberrys instead of standard feature phones.

Where We Stand Now

As cell phone users make the full shift to smartphones, and the manufacturers vie for the larger share of that market, the war is fully on.  Who’s winning at this point? The systems using Google’s Adroid operating system are presently the most ubiquitious, at 40% of the market in the United States.  Apple’s iPhone has 28% of the market, and the famous and once prestigious Blackberry has fallen to only 19% of the market.  (Luckily, Blackberry still has a very large worldwide presence, so its U.S. numbers don’t seem to be concerning it yet.)

But with the switchover occurring at such rapid rates, the big question is where new buyers will head. Manufacturers are also concerned about how loyal there existing customers will be as new features, available apps and more streamlined operating systems are added. Real gadget geeks are willing to switch phones like some of us switch socks.

What the Future Holds

Nielson, an opinion company, reports that about 30% of potential new buyers are considering Androids or iPhones, rather than Blackberrys.  More bad news for Research in Motion.  Further, they claim that surveying users who switch to new technologies quickly and easily tells them that Android is winning the war in that group. Forty percent of these “innovators” plan on shopping for Androids over the next 12 months, while thirty two percent are looking at iPhones.

Neilson breaks these early adapters into tiers, and among the next tier (somewhat lower willingness to shift over in the next year), iPhone and Android are neck and neck in the race.  However, the lowest tier, who are considered the last to adopt new technologies, are showing a clear preference for Android (32%) over iPhone (23%).

The Unknowns Are the Deciding Factor in Most Wars

So it looks like, as in political wars, it may be a question of the undecided vote. Those who adopt new technologies the last, the majority of buyers, and including those who have not yet purchased any smartphone, checked the “not sure” box on the surveys.   This is probably where the battle lines will be drawn.  Apple, Google and RIM will have to fight hard to capture this vast undecided population of smartphone owners. But there is another battle looming in the future: Who will capture the even greater number of standard feature mobile users who will eventually switch?

Choosing a smartphone nowadays is a pretty challenging task.  Before getting one, you can actually search online for feedbacks and reviews. Also, by simply doing a people search, you can get straight feedbacks from people who are actually using it.